Analysis

Match and market analysis.

Analysis·2026年6月2日

Group-stage value: where the market misprices underdogs

Tournament group stages create recurring pricing mistakes. Here is where the edge tends to hide.

1 min read

Analysis·2026年5月28日

How Lemeister models a World Cup match: inputs, probabilities and edges

A walk through the glass-box baseline. Elo, recent form and an expected-goals proxy become a probability, then an edge against the market.

1 min read

Analysis·2026年5月20日

Reading the market: what odds movement tells you before kickoff

Prices move for reasons. Here is how to separate sharp money and real news from noise, and what it means for your edge.

1 min read

Analysis·2026年5月12日

Expected goals, demystified: what xG can and cannot tell you

xG measures chance quality, not destiny. A plain guide to what the number means and where it misleads.

1 min read