A price is a forecast. When it moves, the market is telling you something changed. The skill is knowing what.
Three reasons a line moves
Lines move for three main reasons. Sharp money arrives when informed bettors take a price they think is wrong. News arrives when a lineup, an injury or weather shifts the true probability. Public money arrives when popular sides attract volume regardless of value.
Only the first two should change your estimate. The third often creates value on the other side.
Watch the closing line
The closing line is the market's last and most accurate price. If you consistently take prices better than the close, you are beating the market's own best guess. That is closing line value, and it is the clearest sign of a real edge.
Where the model helps
Our model gives you an independent probability that does not care about volume or popularity. When the market drifts toward a popular side and our number does not move, that gap is worth a closer look.
The point is not to chase steam. The point is to know whether a move reflects information or sentiment, and to price accordingly.
See closing line value and implied probability in the glossary.
