Where the market is wrong on Jordan v Algeria
Jordan meet Algeria in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group j at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area. The model makes Algeria the most likely outcome at 56%, with the full read 20% JOR, 24% draw, 56% ALG.
The baseline ratings are close, 1710 to 1820, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 56% against 64%. Attacking output favors Algeria on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Jordan 0-1 Algeria, from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.7.
The market prices JOR at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Jordan: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
ProfMeister · written from the MeisterIQ model output