Ivory Coast v Ecuador

Ivory Coast meet Ecuador in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group e at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. The model makes Ecuador the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 30% CIV, 27% draw, 42% ECU.

The baseline ratings are close, 1830 to 1860, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 66%. Attacking output favors Ivory Coast on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Ivory Coast 1-1 Ecuador, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.3.

The market prices CIV at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on Ivory Coast: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.