Germany v Ivory Coast

Germany meet Ivory Coast in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group e at BMO Field, Toronto. The model makes Germany the most likely outcome at 55%, with the full read 55% GER, 23% draw, 23% CIV.

Germany rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1990 to 1830. Recent form separates little, 70% against 64%. Attacking output favors Germany on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Germany 1-1 Ivory Coast, from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.1.

The market prices GER at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Ivory Coast: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.