Argentina v Algeria: the model read
Argentina meet Algeria in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group j at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The model makes Argentina the most likely outcome at 68%, with the full read 68% ARG, 19% draw, 13% ALG.
Argentina rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2100 to 1820. Recent form leans Argentina, 80% against 64%. Attacking output favors Argentina on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Argentina 2-0 Algeria, from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.8.
The market prices ARG at 68% implied. Our number sits apart on Algeria: a 2.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output