Group D

United States v Australia

Kickoff: Jun 19, 2026, 3:00 PM ET· Lumen Field, Seattle· Fox

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D

MeisterIQ

Model inputs

Elo rating

0.53 / 0.47

Recent form

0.68 / 0.62

Expected goals

0.53 / 0.43

Defensive solidity

0.63 / 0.60

Win probability

48%

26%

27%

USADrawAUS

vs market

54%

25%

21%

USADrawAUS

Edge detectedAUS +6.0 pts

We show our work

Model versus market

USA to win

IQ69

Our model48%

The market54%

Market above model-6.5 pts

Lemeisterlemeister.com

Head to head

1870Baseline rating1810

68%Form62%

1.6Attack1.3

1.1Defense1.2

Probabilities and ratings are Lemeister baseline model estimates. Live data takes precedence as it settles.

Lemeister provides analytics and education, not betting advice or guaranteed outcomes.