Every Lemeister prediction starts the same way. We turn what we know about two teams into a probability, then we compare that probability to the market. The gap is the edge. Here is how the baseline does it.
The three inputs
The baseline reads three signals. Elo rates each team's strength on a single scale that updates after every result. Recent form weights the last several matches toward the present, so injuries and runs show up quickly. An expected-goals proxy estimates how many goals each side should score from the quality of chances, not the final score.
None of these is a black box. You can see each number and how it moves.
From inputs to probability
We blend the three inputs into a win probability for each outcome, home, draw and away. The blend is deliberate and explainable. A strong Elo with weak recent form pulls in opposite directions, and the model shows you that tension rather than hiding it.
From probability to edge
The market sets a price. We strip out the operator margin to get the market's implied probability. When our probability is higher than the market's, we have a positive edge. The headline is never who wins. It is where the market is wrong.
Why transparency matters
A probability you cannot question is a guess with a decimal point. We show the inputs so you can disagree. That is the difference between analytics and a tip sheet, and it is the standard every Lemeister product holds.
Read the glass-box method next, or see the model versus market primer.
